The Vanguard Group
The index-fund pioneer founded by John Bogle and one of the two largest asset managers in the world. Its economists publish sober, model-driven return forecasts, and its recordkeeping business produces How America Saves, the standard data source on 401(k) behavior.
What they publish
Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook
Vanguard's annual economic and market outlook and its quarterly 10-year return forecasts from the Vanguard Capital Markets Model. It is a valuation-driven counterweight to sell-side optimism.
Outlook
Intermediate
Annual outlook each December; return forecasts updated quarterly
How America Saves
Vanguard's annual report on 401(k) plan design and participant behavior, drawn from the plans it administers. It is the reference dataset on how Americans actually save for retirement.
Data
Foundational
Annual, each June (25th edition in 2026)