Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook
Vanguard's annual economic and market outlook and its quarterly 10-year return forecasts from the Vanguard Capital Markets Model. It is a valuation-driven counterweight to sell-side optimism.
Free to read
Vanguard's economists, led by global chief economist Joseph Davis, publish one of the more disciplined free outlooks in the industry. The annual outlook, released each December, sets out the growth, inflation and rates view and translates it into 10-year expected return ranges for stocks and bonds. The 2026 edition, AI exuberance: Economic upside, stock market downside, argued that AI could lift U.S. growth while stretched valuations limit returns on growth stocks, and it favored bonds and value stocks.
The quarterly return-forecast page is the piece to bookmark. It shows how Vanguard's model ranges for U.S. equities, international equities and bonds moved over the quarter and why, usually in terms of valuations and yields. Regional outlook pages and occasional research on megatrends such as AI and demographics fill in the picture.
Use it to anchor long-run expectations: compare Vanguard's ranges with J.P. Morgan's LTCMA and your own assumptions, and note when the gap between U.S. and international forecasts widens.
Start with
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1
Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2026
The full annual outlook (December 2025), with the AI growth case and the valuation warning side by side.
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2
Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts
The quarterly 10-year return ranges and what changed since the last update.
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3
Megatrends: AI, demographics and the U.S. economy
Vanguard's longer-horizon research on the forces behind its growth assumptions.