AQR Alternative Thinking and Research Library
AQR's research series on asset allocation, factors and portfolio construction, including the yearly capital market assumptions. It sits inside a larger free library of white papers and journal articles from one of the most research-heavy managers in the business.
Free to read
Alternative Thinking is the house series from AQR's Portfolio Solutions Group. Each issue tackles one allocation question with long data histories. Recent topics include medium-term expected returns for the major asset classes, whether buying the dip beats buy-and-hold, the total portfolio approach used by some large institutions, and how to hedge an inflation shock with commodities and trend following.
The wider research library behind it holds AQR's white papers, working papers and published journal articles, among them Value and Momentum Everywhere by Asness, Moskowitz and Pedersen. The firm's quants publish in the same journals as academics, so the work is rigorous and well cited.
The annual capital market assumptions piece is the most practical place to start, since it sets out expected returns using yields and valuations rather than past performance. From there, pick topics by need, such as trend following, tax-aware investing or machine learning in return prediction, and use the library's topic filters.
Start with
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1
2026 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes (January 2026)
AQR's yearly 5- to 10-year expected return estimates, with the method explained.
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2
Hold the Dip (December 2025)
Tests the popular buy-the-dip habit against buy-and-hold and finds it falls short.
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3
Value and Momentum Everywhere (Journal of Finance, 2013)
The landmark paper showing both factors across eight markets and asset classes.