Eye on the Market
Michael Cembalest's long-running research note for J.P. Morgan's wealth clients, covering markets, economics, energy, politics and technology with dense charts and dry wit. It is freely posted, and so widely read well beyond the private bank.
Free to read
Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management, has written Eye on the Market since 2005. The pieces read like a smart colleague's research memo: a punning title, a clear argument and an unusual amount of data, often pulled from academic papers and government sources that most strategists never cite. Topics range from Fed policy and equity valuations to China, U.S. politics, healthcare stocks and AI capital spending.
Two annual pieces are the anchors. The January Outlook (Smothering Heights for 2026) lays out the year's main risks. The Annual Energy Paper, now in its 16th edition, is one of the most detailed free treatments of the energy transition, grid constraints and power demand. Cembalest also writes fast notes on breaking events, such as his March 2023 piece on the Silicon Valley Bank failure.
Read the Outlook each January, the Energy Paper each spring, and the event notes when markets lurch. Most pieces come as web pages with a full PDF, and many have a short video or podcast.
Start with
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1
Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
The annual outlook, organized around four risks to the AI-driven market, from hyperscaler spending to China and Taiwan.
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2
16th Annual Energy Paper: Fighting Words (2026)
Cembalest's flagship yearly study of energy markets and infrastructure, with links to prior editions.
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3
Silicon Valley Bank failure
A good example of his quick-turn analysis of a live crisis, from March 2023.