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Counterpoint Global Insights (Consilient Observer)

Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan's research papers on valuation, competitive strategy, capital allocation and decision-making. These are free, footnoted primers that many analysts treat as a corporate-finance curriculum.

Michael Mauboussin has spent decades turning the corporate finance taught in business school into tools practitioners can use, and his papers with Dan Callahan at Morgan Stanley's Counterpoint Global are the current home of that work. Each paper takes one question, such as how to calculate return on invested capital, how to measure a moat, how companies allocate capital or who is on the other side of a trade, and works through it with definitions, worked examples, base rates from large datasets and an extensive bibliography.

What sets them apart is rigor without jargon. The ROIC paper walks through Microsoft's numbers step by step and covers how to treat intangible investment. Measuring the Moat (104 pages) is a full framework for industry analysis and competitive advantage. Capital Allocation (88 pages) reviews the empirical record on M&A, buybacks, dividends and capex. Others cover probability, base rates, drawdowns and valuation multiples.

Read them as a course: ROIC first, then Measuring the Moat, then Capital Allocation. Keep the PDFs as references, and use the bibliographies to go further.

Start with

  1. 1
    Return on Invested Capital: How to Calculate ROIC and Handle Common Issues

    The foundation for everything else; a careful worked guide to the metric that ties strategy to value (October 2022).

  2. 2
    Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation

    The best free framework for competitive analysis, updated in October 2024.

  3. 3
    Capital Allocation: Results, Analysis, and Assessment

    How management teams raise and spend money and how to judge them, updated in November 2025.

  4. 4
    Who Is On the Other Side? A Framework for Understanding Market (In)Efficiency

    A January 2026 taxonomy of where active investors can find an edge.

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