Golub Capital Middle Market Report (Golub Capital Altman Index)

A quarterly early read on revenue and earnings growth at private US middle market companies, built from Golub's loan book with NYU's Edward Altman. It arrives before public companies report for the same quarter.

Private company earnings are almost invisible to outsiders. Golub Capital, a large direct lender, publishes the Golub Capital Altman Index, built with NYU Stern professor emeritus Edward Altman, which measures year-over-year revenue and EBITDA growth for a sample of roughly 110 to 150 private US companies in its loan portfolio. The figures cover the first two months of each quarter, so the report comes out about two weeks after quarter end, well ahead of most public company earnings.

Each edition gives aggregate growth plus sector splits such as consumer and software, along with short comments from co-CEO Lawrence Golub and from Altman. In the third quarter of 2026, earnings grew 6.9 percent and revenue 3.5 percent; in the second quarter, software earnings grew 9.8 percent.

Use it as a check on the health of the companies that sit behind private credit and private equity portfolios, and compare it with public earnings when they arrive. The archive makes it easy to track margins over time, and you can sign up to get each edition by email.

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