KKR Global Macro Outlook and Insights
Henry McVey's annual and mid-year outlooks are the best-known macro writing from a private equity firm: forecasts, asset allocation calls and specific private market themes, all argued at length with data.
Free to read
Henry McVey and KKR's macro team publish a long-form outlook at the turn of each year and a mid-year update, then fill the gaps with Thoughts from the Road travel notes and short Flash Macro reactions to Fed meetings and jobs data. The 2026 outlook, High Grading, argued for raising portfolio quality late in the cycle and suggested moving from a 60/40 mix toward 40/30/30. The mid-year update, The Divergence Conundrum, argued that growth was continuing but concentrating in fewer sectors and regions.
What sets these pieces apart is that they connect macro forecasts to what a private markets investor would actually buy. McVey's team names themes such as corporate carve-outs, collateral-based cash flows, power and energy, and exposure to Asia, and explains how GDP, inflation and rate forecasts lead there. The reports also show KKR's own forecasts against consensus, which makes them useful for seeing where a large allocator disagrees with the market.
Read the short In Brief summary first, then the full report if a theme matters to your work. The travel notes are the quickest way to see how the view is shifting between outlooks.
Start with
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1
In Brief: Outlook for 2026
A four-minute summary of the High Grading outlook, with a link to the full report.
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2
Mid-Year Outlook for 2026: The Divergence Conundrum
Shows how the team updated its base case and themes six months later.
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3
Thoughts from the Road: Europe and Asia
A shorter note in which the team explains why it raised its interest rate forecasts after meeting investors in London and Singapore.