UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook (Summary Edition)

The free summary of Dimson, Marsh and Staunton's study of stock, bond, bill, currency and gold returns across 35 markets since 1900. It is the standard source for long-run equity risk premium data.

Elroy Dimson of Cambridge and Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School have built the most complete long-run record of investment returns available: annual data for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation in 35 markets back to 1900. The full Yearbook runs over 300 pages and is distributed to UBS clients; the public summary edition, about 24 pages, pulls out the key charts and findings.

This is where the big numbers come from: how much equities have beaten bonds and bills over 126 years, how the U.S. grew from a modest share of world market value to a dominant one, why developed markets have outperformed emerging markets over the long haul, how inflation erodes real returns, and why economic shocks have mattered more than geopolitical ones. Recent editions add factor investing, currency hedging and gold as a hedge.

Read the summary each year for the updated equity premium and the historical context on whatever is worrying markets. It also shows how survivorship and selection bias distort shorter, single-country data sets.

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