A World Without Work
Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond
- Published
- 2020
- Pages
- 320 pages
- Publisher
- Metropolitan Books
- Readers
- 2 members have read this
Oxford economist Daniel Susskind argues that this time the machines really may leave too little paid work to go around, and that the hard problem will be sharing out prosperity rather than producing it. Written before ChatGPT, it is a clear economic framework for thinking about automation, labor's share of income and the tax and welfare policies that may follow.
Most economists treat fear of technological unemployment as a recurring false alarm. Susskind takes the argument seriously. Technology, he says, has always worked in two directions: a substituting force that displaces workers and a complementing force that raises demand for what people still do. For two centuries the second force won. As machines take on manual, cognitive and even emotional tasks, he expects it to fade, first as friction and later as a structural shortage of work.
Susskind is a fellow in economics at Balliol College, Oxford, a former policy adviser in the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit and the Cabinet Office, and co-author with his father, Richard Susskind, of The Future of the Professions.
Dorian Lynskey in the Guardian called it a sensible, nonpartisan explainer, and Rana Foroohar in the FT found the policy chapters the most useful part. Critics pushed back on the premise. Foroohar noted that many economists and technologists doubt the disruption will be this severe, and Bookforum faulted the book for treating history as inevitable and ignoring management's choices. Kirkus and Publishers Weekly found it dense in places.
For finance readers, the value lies in the framework: the shift of income from labor to capital, and why tax policy, public wealth funds and the regulation of big tech may become central political fights.
- Two forces, not one. Technology both substitutes for and complements human labor. The question for any industry is which force is winning, not whether machines are coming.
- Machines need not think like us. Systems that reach human-level results by brute calculation can take over tasks once thought safe, so arguments that a job needs judgment or empathy are weaker defenses than they look.
- Unemployment can be frictional before it is structural. Even with plenty of work available, mismatches in skills, identity and location can push wages and job quality down for displaced workers.
- Capital wins the distribution fight. If human capital loses value, more income flows to the owners of machines and data, which strengthens the case for taxes on capital, profits and large companies.
- Policy becomes the swing factor. Susskind's answer is a larger redistributive state, a conditional basic income and new oversight of big tech, all of which would reshape tax regimes and corporate economics if adopted.
The book is organized in three parts: the context, the threat and the response.
- The context. Susskind surveys two centuries of misplaced anxiety about machines, explains why technology complemented workers during the Age of Labor, and describes the pragmatist revolution in artificial intelligence, where systems match human results without copying human reasoning. He argues that experts have repeatedly underestimated what machines can do.
- The threat. Chapters on task encroachment show automation moving into manual, cognitive and emotional work at different speeds across countries. He then separates frictional technological unemployment, where skills, identity and place block workers from available jobs, from structural technological unemployment, where there is simply not enough demand for human labor, and ties both to rising inequality as income shifts toward owners of capital.
- The response. Susskind argues that education helps but has limits, and makes the case for a Big State that taxes high incomes, capital and large firms and redistributes the proceeds, including through a conditional basic income tied to some contribution to society. He calls for new institutions to check the political power of big technology companies, and closes with the question of how people will find meaning and purpose if paid work becomes scarce.
From the spinning jenny to the combustion engine to the first computer, new technologies have always led workers to panic about being replaced by machines, and yet these fears have always been misplaced. In the past, new technology has always complemented the work of humans. In A World Without Work, award-winning economist Daniel Susskind shows why this time, with the rise of artificial intelligence, it will be different. The threat is real, but we haven't been asking the right questions about exactly what is at stake. Drawing on almost a decade of research into this topic, Susskind argues that a realistic vision of the future is not one in which machines do everything, but rather in which they do more. As they slowly, but relentlessly, take on more and more tasks, human beings will be forced to retreat to the shrinking set of activities that machines cannot do. And, as we move through the 21st century, the demand for the work of humans is likely to wither away. Yet Susskind reminds us that this technological progress will solve one of mankind's oldest problems - how to make the economic pie large enough for everyone to live on. The challenge now is to properly share out this new economic prosperity, constrain the burgeoning political power of Big Tech, and provide meaning in a world with less work. A World Without Work is an innovative, authoritative and optimistic guide to how we can rise to the challenge of automation. The task ahead, Susskind shows us, is to build a world where everyone can flourish.
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