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Philip E. Tetlock
Published: 2017
"Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" is a comprehensive and thought-provoking book by Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and political science at the University of California, Berkeley. The book is based on a multi-year study of 284 experts in various political and economic fields, such as forecasting political events, stock prices, and the timing of revolutions. The study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of expert predictions and identify factors that contribute to their success or failure.
In this book, Tetlock presents the results of his study and argues that expert political judgment is often less accurate than commonly believed. He shows that experts tend to use simple heuristics and mental shortcuts, which can lead to systematic biases and errors. He also suggests that certain personality traits and psychological factors, such as overconfidence and the tendency to seek out and accept confirmatory evidence, can influence experts' ability to make accurate predictions.
The book also explores the impact of group dynamics and the political environment on experts' ability to make predictions. Tetlock's analysis offers insights into the limitations of expert judgment and strategies for improving the accuracy of predictions in political fields. He suggests that experts who are willing to quantify their predictions and update their beliefs based on new evidence are more likely to make accurate predictions.
Tetlock's research has been widely recognized and cited, and his book is considered a classic in the field of judgment and decision-making. It provides a valuable examination of the nature of expert judgment and its implications for decision-making in politics and other fields. The book offers practical suggestions for how to improve expert predictions and cautions readers on the perils of relying too heavily on expert opinions. It's a must-read for policymakers, analysts, academics, and anyone interested in understanding the limits of expert judgment and improving decision-making.
In this book, Tetlock presents the results of his study and argues that expert political judgment is often less accurate than commonly believed. He shows that experts tend to use simple heuristics and mental shortcuts, which can lead to systematic biases and errors. He also suggests that certain personality traits and psychological factors, such as overconfidence and the tendency to seek out and accept confirmatory evidence, can influence experts' ability to make accurate predictions.
The book also explores the impact of group dynamics and the political environment on experts' ability to make predictions. Tetlock's analysis offers insights into the limitations of expert judgment and strategies for improving the accuracy of predictions in political fields. He suggests that experts who are willing to quantify their predictions and update their beliefs based on new evidence are more likely to make accurate predictions.
Tetlock's research has been widely recognized and cited, and his book is considered a classic in the field of judgment and decision-making. It provides a valuable examination of the nature of expert judgment and its implications for decision-making in politics and other fields. The book offers practical suggestions for how to improve expert predictions and cautions readers on the perils of relying too heavily on expert opinions. It's a must-read for policymakers, analysts, academics, and anyone interested in understanding the limits of expert judgment and improving decision-making.
1. Expert political judgment is often less accurate than commonly believed and can be influenced by systematic biases and errors.
2. Simple heuristics and mental shortcuts can lead to inaccuracies in expert predictions.
3. Certain personality traits and psychological factors, such as overconfidence and the tendency to seek out and accept confirmatory evidence, can also influence experts' ability to make accurate predictions.
4. Group dynamics and the political environment can also impact experts' ability to make predictions.
5. Experts who are willing to quantify their predictions and update their beliefs based on new evidence are more likely to make accurate predictions.
6. The book highlights the limitations of relying too heavily on expert opinions and offers practical suggestions for improving expert predictions and decision-making.
2. Simple heuristics and mental shortcuts can lead to inaccuracies in expert predictions.
3. Certain personality traits and psychological factors, such as overconfidence and the tendency to seek out and accept confirmatory evidence, can also influence experts' ability to make accurate predictions.
4. Group dynamics and the political environment can also impact experts' ability to make predictions.
5. Experts who are willing to quantify their predictions and update their beliefs based on new evidence are more likely to make accurate predictions.
6. The book highlights the limitations of relying too heavily on expert opinions and offers practical suggestions for improving expert predictions and decision-making.
"Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" is a book by Philip E. Tetlock, published in 2005. The book presents the results of a multi-year study in which Tetlock analyzed the predictions of experts in various political fields, such as economics and international relations. The study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions and identify factors that contributed to the experts' success or failure.
In the book, Tetlock argues that expert political judgment is often less accurate than commonly believed and that the use of simple heuristics and mental shortcuts can lead to systematic biases. He also suggests that certain personality traits and psychological factors can influence the ability to make accurate predictions.
The book also explores the impact of group dynamics and the political environment on experts' ability to make predictions. Tetlock's analysis offers insights into the limitations of expert judgment and strategies for improving the accuracy of predictions in political fields.
In the book, Tetlock argues that expert political judgment is often less accurate than commonly believed and that the use of simple heuristics and mental shortcuts can lead to systematic biases. He also suggests that certain personality traits and psychological factors can influence the ability to make accurate predictions.
The book also explores the impact of group dynamics and the political environment on experts' ability to make predictions. Tetlock's analysis offers insights into the limitations of expert judgment and strategies for improving the accuracy of predictions in political fields.
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Read on: May 12, 2023